Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 20.057546 21.832392 23.795990 26.150451 28.925604 32.130146 36.167597
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 17.257970 19.547696 22.266417 25.804666 30.404585 36.367170 45.033009
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 15.334541 17.870669 21.042469 25.441895 31.646818 40.573918 55.550870
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 13.961288 16.630121 20.106682 25.187379 32.877480 45.072054 68.822885
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 12.923550 15.666314 19.359842 25.001301 34.092273 49.904647 85.993228
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 11.969968 14.697587 18.462253 24.409380 34.482033 53.424614 103.638315
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 11.612505 14.496259 18.606467 25.400449 37.740301 63.839664 153.651915
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 11.008368 13.884223 18.067101 25.187266 38.744914 69.974102 204.691047
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 10.557046 13.450411 17.744316 25.274589 40.342293 78.529593 302.402930
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 10.186756 13.102975 17.514450 25.478301 42.229700 89.300471 514.867975
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 9.829267 12.746215 17.231957 25.538060 43.818399 100.619363 1052.850258
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 9.437610 12.310806 16.782799 25.221366 44.448200 109.305734 2674.814506
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 9.131314 11.992305 16.507711 25.219151 45.914457 123.522215 NaN
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 8.811842 11.634942 16.140153 24.988814 46.751145 136.431427 NaN
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 8.507956 11.285679 15.761162 24.690307 47.343618 149.523928 NaN
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 8.240999 10.981158 15.437996 24.469916 48.120902 165.845990 NaN
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 8.002776 10.710615 15.155566 24.303030 49.032644 186.006365 NaN
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 7.723282 10.361044 14.712569 23.743304 48.593815 195.208411 NaN
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 7.679094 10.390087 14.943914 24.691161 53.377562 275.014553 NaN
2025-04-20 00:00:00+00:00 7.479225 10.154053 14.679703 24.489079 54.185444 315.819479 NaN
2025-04-27 00:00:00+00:00 7.329425 9.994253 14.545292 24.572944 56.099179 394.646006 NaN
2025-05-04 00:00:00+00:00 7.202317 9.866459 14.461756 24.767486 58.553124 528.540217 NaN
2025-05-11 00:00:00+00:00 7.065588 9.716602 14.327523 24.824602 60.518148 713.770087 NaN